TheWashington Nationalswill face theTampa Bay Rayson Friday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is at 6:50 p.m. ET.
The Rays are -150 moneyline favorites and the game total is 7.5 runs scored.
Washington (38-42 SU, 47-33 RL, and 37-40-3 O/U) is starting left-hander Mitchell Parker. The 24-year-old is 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his 13 outings this year.
Tampa Bay (40-41 SU, 37-44 RL, and 41-36-4 O/U) is countering with right-hander Zach Eflin. The 30-year-old is 3-5 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 starts.
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Washington lost momentum vs. San Diego
The Nationals were swept by the Padres earlier this week. The series loss puts them four games under .500 and 15 games out of the division lead in the N.L. East.
Washington ranks 23rd in OBP (.304), 24th in OPS (.671), 29th in home runs (67), and 20th in RBI (314). The Nats' pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA (16th) and 1.29 WHIP (21st).
Parker will toe the rubber for the visitors on Friday. In his last appearance, the rookie southpaw allowed four runs on six hits with eight strikeouts in six innings versus Colorado. He is 2-3 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in eight road starts this year. Parker, who sports a 58:17 K:BB ratio, has never faced Tampa Bay.
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Eflin has been locked in at home
Tampa Bay won two of three versus Seattle in its last series. The Rays are one game under .500 and 3.5 games back in the A.L. Wild Card standings.
TB ranks 16th in OBP (.310), 22nd in OPS (.676), 26th in home runs (70), and 24th in RBI (306). The Rays' pitching staff has a 4.35 ERA (23rd) and 1.26 WHIP (14th).
Eflin will take the hill for the home team tomorrow. In his last outing, the veteran righty allowed four runs on five hits with six strikeouts in a seven-inning loss at Pittsburgh. He has been much better at home (2-1 with a 2.90 ERA) than on the road (1-4 with a 5.01 ERA) in 2024. Eflin, who has a 63:6 K:BB ratio, last faced Washington in 2022. He is 4-5 with a 5.13 ERA in 12 career appearances versus the Nationals.
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Best Bets for Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Full-Game Side Bet
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At roughly +140 odds, I value a wager on the Rays to cover the run line (-1.5). Eflin has been a much better pitcher at home, and his ERA in night games is nearly 1.5 runs lower than his ERA during day games. The Nationals don't have much experience against the veteran hurler, but their limited splits aren't great (.191 BA/.208 OBP/.234 SLG/.442 OPS in 47 combined ABs).
Tampa Bay is having its best month at the plate (.247/.320/.397/.716) and hits left-handers (.253/.314/.384/.698) better than right-handers (.231/.309/.360/.669). Winners of seven of their last ten, the Rays have enough offensive firepower to jump out to an early lead and comfortably cover against the reeling Nationals in the series opener.
Prediction: Rays RL (-1.5)
Full-Game Total Pick
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Rating:
Betting Trends: The over is 13-9-1 in Tampa Bay's interleague games and 23-19-3 in its home games this season.
I will wager on the over at 7.5 total runs in Friday night's Nats-Rays game!
Washington scored 18 runs versus San Diego and averaged 6.3 runs per game in its last two series. The Nationals are slashing .248/.304/.388/.692 this month, averaging 4.5 runs. They may struggle early against Eflin but should fare well against the mediocre TB bullpen (4.30 ERA and 46 HR allowed).
Tampa Bay has scored 4.47 runs per game in June and has solid splits versus southpaws. The inexperienced Parker will have his hands full against a lineup that averaged 5.7 runs per game in its last ten overall. If he can't keep the surging Rays off the board early, it will put additional pressure on the middle-of-the-road Nationals bullpen (4.06 ERA) to hold the home team in check.
Prediction: Over 7.5
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I jumped into sports betting headfirst due to an irresistible call to action. I am a sports writer by trade, earning my B.A. in Journalism with a sports reporting concentration from Michigan State in 2012. With my journalism background, I combine thorough research with a keen eye for hidden value to generate consistent profits for my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking "shop" with like-minded people. This allows me to see different angles and avoid traps that derail my progress. In short, their insight and intuition assist or deter my decision-making process. The pitfalls to avoid in sports gambling are following the crowd, assumptions, gullibility, and lack of accountability. A bettor is never as hot or cold as their best and worst streaks. By dedicating yourself to obtaining knowledge, you will never feel like you know it all. At its core, sports betting is about intuition. When you can predict which way the wind will blow, you will never feel caught up in the current stream. Sometimes you need to be counterintuitive. Risk is in the mind of the beholder, but when you bet with me, you'll find that the reward justifies the wager!
